AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market News and Commentary

December 11, 2018

Corn futures closed the Tuesday session with most contracts fractionally to 1 3/4 cents higher, despite larger carryout estimates for both the US and World. USDA updated their monthly S&D table this morning showing no change to the production side for the US as expected. They did cut corn usage for ethanol by 50 mbu, and trimmed imports by 5 mbu for a net ending stocks change of +45 mbu to 1.781 bbu. USDA tightened the cash average price by 10 cents to a $3.25-3.95 range. On the world side, carryout was increased 1.29 MMT to 308.8 MMT, with most of that from the US. The USDA left their Brazil 18/19 production number UNCH at 94.5 MMT, CONAB updated their estimate to 91.1 MMT.

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.75, up 3/4 cent,

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.84 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

May 19 Corn closed at $3.92 1/4, up 1 cent

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.98 3/4, up 1 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Market News and Commentary

December 11, 2018

Soybean futures ended the day with the front months 5 to 5 1/2 cents higher. Nearby soy meal was up $1/ton, with soy oil 19 points higher. This morning’s monthly WASDE update from the USDA showed no changes to the US supply and demand table, with 18/19 US carryout at 955 bu. The cash average price range for soybeans was narrowed by 50 cents to $7.85-9.35 but is still centered at $8.60. World ending stocks are now projected at 115.33 MMT by WAOB, up 3.25 MMT from their prior estimate. Revisions were made to 17/18 numbers, as Brazil’s production was raised 0.5 to 120.3 MMT and carryout was 1.6 MMT higher. For 18/19 USDA increased their Brazilian soybean production number to 122 MMT, vs. the new CONAB update at 120.066 MMT.

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $9.15, up 5 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.28 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.41, up 5 1/2 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $9.56 3/4, up 5 1/2 cents,

Dec 18 Soybean Meal closed at $308.90, up $1.00,

Dec 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.71, up $0.19

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Market News and Commentary

December 11, 2018

Wheat futures saw up to 5 1/2 cent losses in the winter wheat contracts on Tuesday, with MPLS steady to 2 cents higher. The USDA 18/19 US ending stocks projection was pegged at 974 mbu this morning, 25 mbu higher than last month. USDA made a long-awaited cut to exports (25 mbu) to put them at 1 bbu. A majority of the export reduction was in the form of HRW (down 40 mbu), with HRS and SRW higher. World ending stocks were up 1.39 MMT to 268.1 MMT, mainly on the larger US and EU carryouts. Russia exports are now projected at 36.5 MMT. Japan is tendering (due Thursday) for 137,657 MT of wheat, with 60,248 MT from the US and the balance from Canada and Australia. SovEcon estimates Russia’s wheat crop at 70.9 MMT, up 0.2 from their previous number. Egypt’s GASC is tendering for another round of wheat for Feb 1-10 delivery, with the tender to close on Wednesday.

Dec 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.09 3/4, down 5 cents,

Dec 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.77 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Dec 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.80 1/2, up 1/2 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market News and Commentary

December 11, 2018

Live cattle settled with 65 to 95 cent gains on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures were up $1.15 to $2.275 on the day. The CME feeder cattle index was up 96 cents on December 10 at $144.96. Wholesale beef prices were mixed on Tuesday afternoon, with the Ch/Se spread tightening to $13.07. Choice boxes were down 96 cents at $214.46, with the Select cutout value 45 cents higher at $201.39. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 122,000 head for Tuesday, with the weekly total at 241,00 head. That is 1,000 above last week and 7,000 head larger than the same week last year. A total of 156 head are listed for Wednesday’s FCE online auction, with both lots from KS. USDA’s quarterly meat production table showed beef production for 2018 up 25 million lbs from November to 26.939 billion, with 2019 production down the same amount to 27.785 billion lbs.

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $118.375, up $0.800,

Feb 19 Cattle closed at $122.150, up $0.950,

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $124.525, up $0.925,

Jan 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.300, up $2.275

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.900, up $2.150

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.275, up $2.000

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Market News and Commentary

December 11, 2018

Lean Hog futures were mixed on Tuesday, with front months 27.5 cents to $1.625 lower and back months higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 16 cents from the previous day @ $56.12 on December 7. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 68 cents at $73.33. The national base cash hog carcass value was down 58 cents to a weighted average of $46.58. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for Tuesday is 479,000 head, bringing the WTD total to 958,000. That is 13,000 head larger than last week and 28,000 head above a year ago. USDA projected 2018 US pork production at 26.310 billion lbs, down 10 million from last month, with 2019 UNCH estimated at 27.715 billion lbs.

Dec 18 Hogs closed at $54.450, down $0.275,

Feb 19 Hogs closed at $65.200, down $1.625

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $71.450, down $0.625

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market News and Commentary

December 11, 2018

Cotton futures posted 14 to 26 point gains on Tuesday, despite larger US carryout numbers and a stronger US dollar. This morning’s monthly USDA report showed increased US production, up 180,000 bales to 18.559 million bales. TX production was up 300,000 bales to 7.032 million. That helped to raise projected carryout 100,000 bales to 4.4 million bales. World ending stocks were up 580,000 bales to 73.19 million bales. Larger Chinese and Brazil carryout helped to push it higher. The Cotlook A index was up 125 points from the previous day on Dec 10 at 88.5 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP is 69.34, effective through Thursday.

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 80.020, up 14 points,

May 19 Cotton closed at 81.130, up 24 points

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 81.720, up 26 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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