Ag Market Commentary
cmdty Insider - BRUG - Thu Oct 11, 12:12PM CDT

Corn futures are trading 5 to 6 cents higher in most contracts on Thursday, following some friendly USDA numbers. The USDA announced a private export cancellation of 140,000 MT to unknown destinations this morning. NASS tallied 18/19 US corn yield at 180.7 bpa, which was down 0.6 bpa from September and below trade estimates. That took production to 14.778 bbu, down 51 mbu as harvested acreage was just 3,000 acres lower. USDA projects that the current MY carryout will total 1.813 bbu, up 39 mbu from last month but still well (106 mbu) shy of trade expectations. World ending stocks were on par with projections coming in at 159.35 MMT. EIA data released this morning showed 1.04 million barrels of ethanol per day was produced in the week of 10/5. That was up 25,000 bpd from the week prior, as stocks grew by 576,000 barrels to 24.021 million barrels. CONAB released initial projections for Brazil corn production on Thursday, with 18/19 seen at 89.734-91.084 MMT and USDA currently at 94.5 MMT.

DEC 18 Corn is at $3.68 3/4, up 6 cents,

MAR 19 Corn is at $3.80 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents,

MAY 19 Corn is at $3.87 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents

JUL 19 Corn is at $3.93 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330



Soybean futures are mostly 2 to 3 1/2 cents in the green at midday, after USDA numbers weren’t as bearish as traders had anticipated. Nearby soy meal is up $1.70/ton, with soy oil down 18 points. This morning’s Crop Production report indicated 2018 projected US soybean yield @ 53.1 bpa, up 0.3 from the month previous. Harvested acreage was trimmed by 514,000 acres to 88.348 million acres, which left production down 3 mbu from September at 4.69 bbu. Ending stocks were increased by 40 mbu to 885 mbu on the larger carryover from 17/18, still 13 mbu lower than estimates. USDA now sees 18/19 world carryout at 110.04 MMT, 1.78 MMT larger than Sept. Brazil production projections for 18/19 range from 117.05 to 119.428 MMT according to a CONAB report released this morning. USDA is currently at 120.5 MMT.

NOV 18 Soybeans are at $8.54 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $8.68 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans are at $8.81 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

MAY 19 Soybeans are at $8.95 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents,

OCT 18 Soybean Meal is at $313.70, up $1.70,

OCT 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.47, down $0.18

--Call Brugler Marketing & Management @ (402) 289-2330 with questions or news tips.



Wheat futures are mixed on Thursday, with CBT mostly steady to a penny higher and KC and MPLS 1 1/2 cents on either side of UNCH. USDA made a few changes to their 18/19 US wheat balance sheet by upping production to 1.884 bbu as seen in the Small Grains report. They left their export projection at 1.025 bbu, while ending stocks were 21 mbu higher at 956 mbu and slightly under estimates. World ending stocks were trimmed to 260.18 MMT, down 1.11 MMT from last month and below most published trade estimates. Australian production was trimmed by 1.5 to 18.5 MMT and Russia was back down 1 to 70 MMT.

DEC 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.11 1/4, up 3/4 cent,

DEC 18 KCBT Wheat is at $5.15 3/4, down 1/2 cent,

DEC 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.93 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management, Call (402) 289-2330



Live cattle futures are steady to 50 cents higher in the front months and lower in the back months. Feeder cattle futures are also 50 to 60 cents higher in the nearby contracts, with deferred contracts lower. The CME feeder cattle index was down 7 cents on October 9 at $158.38. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Thursday morning. Choice boxes were up 86 cents to $202.97, while Select boxes were 63 cents lower at $191.14. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 348,000 head through Wednesday. That was down 10,000 head from last week and 4,000 from the same week in 2017. A few cash cattle sales have been shown for on Thursday, mostly around $111. US beef production for 2018 was trimmed by 150 million pounds to 26.944 billion pounds in the WASDE report. A 190 million lb reduction to 4th quarter production was offset a 40 million lb jump in the 3rd quarter.

OCT 18 Cattle are at $112.575, up $0.500,

DEC 18 Cattle are at $116.750, up $0.275,

FEB 19 Cattle are at $121.200, down $0.250,

OCT 18 Feeder Cattle are at $156.500, up $0.600

NOV 18 Feeder Cattle are at $156.675, up $0.500

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $151.475, down $0.650

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330



Lean hog futures are 27.5 cents higher in soon to expire Oct, with other contracts triple digits lower. October needs to stick close to the cash index due to Friday’s expiration. The CME Lean Hog Index was up a penny on October 9 to $69.34. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 11 cents higher on Thursday morning at $79.31. The national base hog carcass value was 34 cents higher this morning at $62.99. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1.381 million head WTD through Wednesday. That is down 22,000 head from last week and 4,000 head below the same week last year. USDA estimated pork production for 2018 was cut by 250 million pounds to 26.425 billion pounds, on large reductions to 3rd and 4th quarter production.

OCT 18 Hogs are at $68.750, up $0.275,

DEC 18 Hogs are at $54.250, down $1.700

FEB 19 Hogs are at $62.900, down $1.625

--Call Brugler Marketing & Management @ (402) 289-2330 with questions or news tips.



Cotton futures are trading 15 to 40 points in the green on Thursday, with help from some world numbers in this morning’s USDA reports. NASS added 80,000 bales to the US production number on Thursday @ 19.76 million bales, with slightly lower acreage but yield up 6 lbs to 901 lb/ac. Ending stocks were up 300,000 bales to 5 million on a reduction to projected exports. World carryout for 18/19 was trimmed by 3 million bales to 77.45 million bales, mainly on historical revisions to India. Cotlook A index down 50 points from the previous day at 86.35 cents/lb on October 10. The USDA weekly AWP was updated to 67.73 cents/lb, down 14 points from the week prior.

DEC 18 Cotton is at 77.18, up 38 points,

MAR 18 Cotton is at 78.39, up 35 points

MAY 19 Cotton is at 79.08, up 22 points

JUL 19 Cotton is at 79.67, up 15 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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