Report Recap
Joe Camp of AgriVisor - - Fri Aug 10, 3:22PM CDT
***** Corn drops 10 1/4 to 11 1/2 cents; soybeans tumble 40 to 42 1/4; Chicago wheat off 16 to 17 3/4. *****

#USDA starts with a record U.S. corn yield estimate, 178.4 bushels per acre versus 176.6 bpa last year. The average trade guess was 176.4 bpa. Illinois corn yield was pegged at 207 bpa, up from 201 last year. Iowa at 202 bpa and even with the 2017 final. Indiana 186, Missouri 131. Record corn yields are predicted for six states.
#Its not a record bean yield estimate, but its close, at 51.6 bushels per acre. Traders had it pegged 49.8 bpa. Illinois leads the way at 64 bpa versus 58 bpa last year. Iowa at 59, Indiana 58, Missouri 45.
#The government did not cut world wheat production by as much as expected. Global ending stocks declined 2 million tons to 259 mt and compared with a consensus call for something near 256 mt. With no reductions made to output in Canada, Australia, or Ukraine and small additions made for Russia and Kazakhstan, there may be more room for balance sheet tightening on future crop reports.
#Bigger U.S. corn and soybean production forecasts did the heavy lifting in raising the global carryout estimates by more than anticipated. World corn ending stocks for 2018/19 were pegged at 155.5 million tons versus an average trade estimate of 151.7 mt. Soybean endings stocks of 105.9 compared with the pre-report guess at 99.3.
#Adjustments to demand were mostly inconsequential. New-crop corn exports were upped 225 million bushels but the ethanol numbers didnt budge. Old-crop soybean exports were revised slightly higher and the new-crop trade forecast gained 20 mbu.
#The selloff certainly did some chart damage with corn and soybean secondary uptrends broken. December corn lost support from all of the major moving averages and heads toward retracement targets at $3.69 1/4 and $3.64 3/4. November soybeans fell to finish a 62 percent retracement of the recent move up out of the July low. The contract re-approaches its lifetime low at $8.26 1/4.
#Geopolitical concerns stemming from tensions with Turkey hammered the stock market and sent investors looking for safe haven in the dollar. President Trump announced a doubling of the steel tariff against Turkey, to 50 percent, in response to Turkish President Erdogans refusal to release an American pastor from jail.

***** Live cattle fractionally mixed; feeders make moderate gains in response to a corn selloff; hogs down $0.22 to up $0.15.*****

#Hog futures pared strong early gains to slump along with the rest of the ag commodity space. USDA lowered its 2018 pork production estimate by 35 million pounds but increased the 2019 projection by 175 million pounds. Most bearish is the outlook for pork output to rise 11 percent from the third to fourth quarter this year.
#USDA beef supply estimates were similarly negative in that a small cut to 2018 production was more than offset by a gain for the 2019 projection. The estimate for fourth quarter prices was revised to $115-$117.