Morning Grains Report 08/10/18
Jack Scoville of The PRICE Futures Group - InsideFutures.com - Fri Aug 10, 1:35PM CDT

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug. 13, 2018 186 Aug 09, 2018
SOYBEAN August Aug. 13, 2018 337 Aug 09, 2018

DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2018-19 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Friday.
2018-19 U.S. Wheat Production (million bushels)
Average Range USDA July USDA 2017-18
All Wheat 1,850 1,700-1,900 1,881 1,741
Winter Wheat 1,181 1,050-1,201 1,193 1,269
Hard Red Winter 656 635-665 657 750
Soft Red Winter 303 290-322 303 292
White Winter 228 202-240 232 227
Other Spring 600 570-633 614 416
Durum 74 69-78 75 55
All Winter Other
Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White Spring Durum
Advanced Market 1867 1200 662 308 230 595 72
Allendale 1853 1193 658 322 202 591 69
AgriVisor 1854 1183 655 300 228 598 73
DC Analysis 1836 1194 660 304 230 570 72
Doane 1861 1193 657 303 232 594 74
EDF Man 1852 1185 660 300 225 595 72
Farm Futures 1869 1159 635 313 210 633 78
Hueber Report 1885 1196 658 303 235 614 75
INTL FCStone 1859 1186 648 306 232 599 74
MaxYield 1750 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Northstar 1850 1193 657 290 230 590 75
Sid Love Consulting 1900 1193 657 303 232 631 77
Price Group 1862 1201 660 302 240 585 76
Prime Ag 1881 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
RJ O’Brien 1866 1195 661 301 233 599 73
RMC 1700 1050 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
US Commodities 1882 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Vantage RM 1881 1193 657 303 232 614 75
Western Milling 1834 1180 650 300 230 584 70
Zaner Ag Hedge 1863 1190 665 295 231 600 73

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2018 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Friday.
U.S. 2018 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA July USDA 2017
Corn Production 14,417 14,210-14,740 14,230 14,604
Soybean Production 4,428 4,354-4,576 4,310 4,392
Corn Yield 176.3 173.8-180.2 174.0 176.6
Soybean Yield 49.8 49.0-51.5 48.5 49.1
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
Advanced Market 14,475 177.1 4,487 50.5
AgriSource 14,351 175.5 4,443 50.0
Agrivisor 14,323 175.1 4,423 49.8
Allendale 14,441 176.6 4,452 50.1
DC Analysis 14,390 176.0 4,425 49.8
Doane 14,473 177.0 4,445 50.0
EDF Man 14,230 174.0 4,354 49.0
Farm Futures 14,362 175.4 4,422 49.8
Hueber Report 14,380 175.8 4,363 49.1
INTL FCStone 14,563 178.1 4,576 51.5
Sid Love Consultin 14,397 176.0 4,400 49.5
MaxYield 14,400 176.0 4,360 49.0
Northstar 14,683 179.5 4,445 50.0
Price Group 14,210 173.8 4,400 49.5
Prime Ag 14,397 176.0 4,401 49.5
RJ O’Brien 14,390 176.0 4,480 50.4
RMC 14,396 176.0 4,356 49.0
US Commodities 14,397 176.0 4,401 49.5
Vantage RM 14,355 175.5 4,418 49.7
Western Milling 14,397 176.0 4,445 50.0
Zaner 14,740 180.2 4,489 50.5

DJ U.S. August Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2017-18
Average Range USDA July
Corn 2,016 1,900-2,137 2,027
Soybeans 461 437-507 465
Wheat 1,099 1,080-1,100 1,100
2018-19
Average Range USDA July
Corn 1,630 1,457-1,812 1,552
Soybeans 641 550-742 580
Wheat 959 813-1,018 985
2017-18 2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,027 465 N/A 1,647 742 956
AgriSource 2,000 465 1,100 1,598 713 959
Agrivisor 2,052 455 1,100 1,670 680 962
Allendale 2,047 463 1,100 1,743 655 991
DC Analysis 2,002 440 N/A 1,487 621 813
Doane 1,950 445 1,100 1,650 570 945
EDF Man 2,027 465 N/A 1,552 600 950
Farm Futures 2,137 477 N/A 1,701 668 1,018
Hueber Report 2,025 470 1100 1,650 600 980
INTL FCStone 1,989 437 N/A 1,754 657 983
Sid Love Consulting 2,027 465 1,100 1,644 550 1,008
MaxYield 1,900 465 1,100 1,500 625 955
Northstar 2,027 455 1,100 1,780 680 895
Price Group 2,027 440 1,100 1,457 625 965
Prime-Ag 2,027 465 1,100 1,644 671 935
RJ O’Brien 1,987 446 N/A 1,552 651 969
RMC 2,027 465 1,080 1,560 570 985
US Commodities 2002 469 1100 1,669 637 970
Vantage RM 2,027 465 1,100 1,673 643 942
Western Milling 2,023 507 1,100 1,480 642 966
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,002 450 N/A 1,812 671 985

DJ August World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2017-18
Average Range USDA July
Corn 190.8 188.0-192.6 191.7
Soybeans 95.8 92.0-97.0 96.0
Wheat 273.0 271.0-275.0 273.5
2018-19
Average Range USDA July
Corn 152.2 146.0-158.2 152.0
Soybeans 99.3 94.0-101.7 98.3
Wheat 255.6 248.0-259.9 260.9
2017-18 2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 189.5 97.0 N/A 149.2 101.0 248.0
Agrivisor 191.2 95.0 273.5 152.5 99.5 259.9
Allendale 192.6 96.1 272.9 158.2 99.4 258.5
Doane 188.0 97.0 275.0 146.0 101.0 249.0
EDF Man 192.0 96.0 N/A 152.0 99.0 255.0
Farm Futures 191.0 92.0 274.0 148.0 94.0 257.0
Hueber Report 190.5 96.5 272.5 152.0 99.0 258.0
INTL FCStone 190.4 95.2 N/A 153.7 100.2 258.8
MaxYield 192.0 96.0 271.5 154.0 96.5 256.5
Northstar 189.0 96.0 273.5 158.0 101.2 253.0
Prime-Ag 192.0 96.0 273.0 153.0 100.0 256.0
RMC 191.5 95.8 271.0 152.0 98.3 259.5
US Commodities 190.5 96.0 273.5 150.9 99.8 252.5
Western Milling 191.0 97.0 273.0 150.0 99.0 255.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 190.2 95.1 N/A 153.4 101.7 256.9

Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean crop forecast risen to 118.98 mln tns – Conab – Reuters News
09-Aug-2018 07:06:21 AM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
SAO PAULO, Aug 9 (Reuters) –
• Brazil’s 2017/18 total grain crop seen at 228.56 mln tns vs 228.51 mln tns seen in July and 237.67 mln tns last season – Conab
• Brazil’s 2017/18 second-corn crop seen at 55.35 mln tns vs 56.01 mln tns in July preview and 67.38 tns last season – Conab
• Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean crop seen at 118.98 mln tns vs 118.88 mln tns seen in July and 114.08 mln tns last season – Conab
• Brazil’s 2017/18 average soy yields seen at 3,385 kg/ha vs 3,382 kg/ha in July view and 3,364 kg/ha last season – conab
• Brazil’s 2017/18 total corn crop seen at 82.18 mln tns vs 82.92 mln tns seen in July and 97.84 mln tns last season – Conab
• Brazil’s 2017/18 average corn yields seen at 4,939 kg/ha vs 4,967 kg/ha in July view and 5,562 kg/ha last season – Conab
(Reporting by Ana Mano)

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower yesterday in response to relatively weak export sales reports and as traders prepared for the USDA production and supply and demand reports tomorrow. Traders want to see improved export demand due to higher world prices and production losses in major exporter countries, but so far the demand for US Wheat has not been that strong. USDA is expected to trim Spring Wheat production as it confirms the disappointing yield results noted in the North Dakota crop tour. Wheat markets might be able to work higher in coming weeks due to the shortage of Wheat production in many exporter countries. Significantly lower production is expected in Europe and Russia, and world prices have been moving higher in response. The potential for losses to Wheat in northern Europe continues to be reported, and some analysts now say that EU production would be the lowest in about six years. The harvest continues in most areas and yields have been disappointing. A downgrade in production for European Wheat is likely in coming months, and comes on the back of earlier downgrades.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains mostly dry conditions again, but some showers are expected tomorrow. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 595 September. Support is at 554, 552, and 551 September, with resistance at 571, 578, and 583 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 574, 564, and 553 September, with resistance at 590, 594, and 597 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 623, 619, and 612 September, and resistance is at 635, 639, and 644 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply lower again in early trading on what appeared to be fund selling, but recovered to close with small gains for the day. The export sales report was positive, and the trade wonders about Rice production for the USDA reports that will be released later this afternoon. Futures have blown through swing targets for the move and are now oversold. The harvests in Louisiana and Texas states are now at least a third complete and yields are reported to be good to very good. The harvest will soon spread north, but the harvest in Arkansas has been delayed by some cool and wet weather recently. Conditions in the state are called good, but a lot of the fields have extra grass this year that could rob yield potential for the Rice.. Good crop condition ratings and increased planted area this year have the traders looking for a good production. USDA said last month demand should also improve in the coming year and ending stocks could remain tight. It should confirm both those ideas in the reports.
Overnight News: The Delta should see showers from Wednesday to Friday, then more dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal. .
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1065, 1058, and 1049 September, with resistance at 1081, 1109, and 1119 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday despite another solid export sales report. The trade was getting ready for the production and supply and demand reports tomorrow Ideas that feed grains production in Europe is getting hurt by the hot and dry weather there continue to support stronger demand ideas here. Demand for US Corn is expected to hold very strong in both the export and domestic markets. The reports are expected to show strong yield potential, but yield estimates have moderated due to some of the weather seen recently. Price Group thinks the crop is very strong, but forecasts yields at 173.8 bushels per acre. That would leave overall production at or just below the current USDA estimates. USDA kept the crop ratings at just one point lower in the good to excellent side on Monday night and once again showed that the crop is moving quickly to maturity. Demand for US Corn is said to be strong. Ethanol demand remains very strong. The US will remain dominant in the Corn market due to problems with feed grains production in Europe and Russia now and in South America previously.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 377 September. Support is at 364, 360, and 358 September, and resistance is at 374, 376, and 379 September. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 257, 255, and 250 September, and resistance is at 265, 267, and 269 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower as traders prepared fo the USDA production and supply and demand reports that will be released later today. The export sales report was considered solid but was not enough to hold futures at higher levels.. Weaker Chinese demand should remain a feature until something concrete is done as reports from exporters say that no Chinese demand for US Soybeans is seen. The US and Chinese governments are still looking for ways to get talks started to reduce the tariff wars and get exports flowing between the two countries again, but so far Trump and the US appear to be looking for total capitulation from the Chinese, and the Chinese are indicating that total capitulation will never happen. The standoff might last through the November US elections. Soybeans would be a primary beneficiary of reduced tariffs, and prices could sink more if no resolution to the tariff wars is found. USDA will issue its first field based survey for production and the estimate is expected to be high. Yields should be near or just below 50 bushels per acre. US growing conditions have been variable, with hot and dry conditions in the east and southwest and too much rain in the north, so national yield potential could be somewhat variable. August weather will be important, and longer range forecasts call for warmer and drier weather for the month.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 210,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 959 and 1032 September. Support is at 886, 879, and 873 September, and resistance is at 903, 909, and 912 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 330.00, 327.00, and 324.00 September, and resistance is at 337.00, 341.00, and 344.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2820, 2800, and 2780 September, with resistance at 2900, 2920, and 2960 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with Chicago and despite continued hot weather in the Prairies. The heat could hurt Canola yields. The charts show that futures are testing into a support area. Speculators were the best sellers despite crop production uncertainty. The crops in general look good, but August is coming and the conditions could change quickly.. Concerns about drought in parts of the western Prairies give support. Charts show up trends.. Palm Oil was mixed and held due to good export data from the private sources. The MPOB data was considered neutral. A weaker Ringitt was supportive to Palm Oil. Competing vegetable oils were also firm. The market is back talking about increased production and disappointing demand and will look to sell the rally. The exports reported so far by the private surveyors for the month are mixed.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 287,501 tons so far this month, from 257,096 tons last month. AmSpec said exports are now 298,610 tons, from 278,048 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 518.00 and 540.00 November. Support is at 505.00, 503.00, and 500.00 November, with resistance at 514.00, 516.00, and 517.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2300 and 2390 October. Support is at 2200, 2170, and 2130 October, with resistance at 2270, 2300, and 2320 October.

MPOB Monthly Supply and Demand Report:
Observation period : Jul
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Friday, 10 Aug
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.54 mil tonnes, Up 15.9%
Exports – 1.14 mil tonnes, Up 0.9%
Ending Stocks – 2.34 mil tonnes, Up 7.0%
Actual as follows:
Production – 1.50 mil tonnes, Up 12.8%
Exports – 1.21 mil tonnes, Up 6.8%
Ending Stocks – 2.21 mil tonnes, Up 1.3%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.33 mil tonnes, Down 12.6%
Exports – 1.13 mil tonnes, Down 12.6%
Ending Stocks – 2.19 mil tonnes, Up 0.8%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions through the weekend with near to below normal temperatures. Some showers are possible today in the north and tomorrow in the south.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August 56 September 120 September 58 September 32 November 25-Sep
September 58 September 65 September 26-Nov
October 49 December 65 December 28-Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
August 202 August
September 220 September 4-Sep 105 September
October 8-Oct 94 December

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 9
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 485.86 up 8.10
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 518.70 dn 2.00
2 Can 505.70 dn 2.00
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 533.70 dn 2.00
2 Can 520.70 dn 2.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 567.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 570.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 585.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 605.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 570.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 572.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 587.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 607.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 565.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 490.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2240.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 219.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0860)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 372,062 lots, or 14.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 3,665 3,715 3,643 3,650 3,654 3,674 20 38,904 61,192
Nov-18 3,700 3,745 3,680 3,700 3,722 3,709 -13 36 68
Jan-19 3,778 3,847 3,758 3,774 3,787 3,799 12 327,098 242,704
Mar-19 3,783 3,783 3,752 3,756 3,680 3,764 84 14 32
May-19 3,812 3,858 3,793 3,808 3,823 3,828 5 5,914 14,378
Jul-19 – – – 3,790 3,790 3,790 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,852 3,871 3,831 3,845 3,856 3,853 -3 80 670
Nov-19 3,859 3,859 3,859 3,859 3,844 3,859 15 2 12
Jan-20 3,882 3,915 3,861 3,861 3,899 3,885 -14 14 36
Corn
Turnover: 480,098 lots, or 9.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 1,801 1,812 1,800 1,809 1,813 1,806 -7 39,120 231,186
Nov-18 1,839 1,847 1,835 1,838 1,847 1,840 -7 16,098 21,682
Jan-19 1,875 1,885 1,871 1,874 1,885 1,875 -10 358,762 860,558
Mar-19 1,916 1,920 1,908 1,908 1,921 1,913 -8 284 3,430
May-19 1,953 1,969 1,947 1,952 1,962 1,955 -7 65,050 215,408
Jul-19 1,958 1,966 1,951 1,955 1,965 1,957 -8 784 3,466
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,690,816 lots, or 55.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-18 – – – 3,183 3,183 3,183 0 0 0
Sep-18 3,300 3,311 3,272 3,291 3,289 3,291 2 241,252 529,344
Nov-18 3,322 3,360 3,319 3,336 3,337 3,329 -8 131,152 185,848
Dec-18 3,290 3,326 3,290 3,326 3,307 3,316 9 82 622
Jan-19 3,280 3,299 3,265 3,279 3,292 3,281 -11 1,204,398 2,232,768
Mar-19 3,139 3,152 3,126 3,141 3,147 3,136 -11 568 3,948
May-19 2,978 2,985 2,963 2,972 2,981 2,974 -7 109,890 606,778
Jul-19 2,929 2,930 2,904 2,920 2,946 2,915 -31 3,474 5,340
Palm Oil
Turnover: 295,930 lots, or 14.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-18 – – – 4,772 4,772 4,772 0 0 0
Sep-18 4,784 4,840 4,776 4,824 4,784 4,806 22 41,528 102,686
Oct-18 – – – 4,794 4,794 4,794 0 0 6
Nov-18 – – – 5,000 5,000 5,000 0 0 20
Dec-18 – – – 4,986 4,986 4,986 0 0 6
Jan-19 4,950 4,992 4,924 4,970 4,946 4,956 10 246,514 443,344
Feb-19 – – – 4,976 4,966 4,976 10 0 4
Mar-19 – – – 4,960 4,950 4,960 10 0 8
Apr-19 – – – 5,094 5,094 5,094 0 0 18
May-19 5,082 5,116 5,068 5,098 5,084 5,094 10 7,888 48,450
Jun-19 – – – 5,102 5,092 5,102 10 0 64
Jul-19 – – – 5,056 5,056 5,056 0 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 499,794 lots, or 29.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-18 – – – 5,714 5,714 5,714 0 0 0
Sep-18 5,742 5,768 5,726 5,756 5,724 5,744 20 113,850 231,922
Nov-18 5,830 5,830 5,820 5,820 5,836 5,824 -12 8 32
Dec-18 – – – 5,884 5,884 5,884 0 0 16
Jan-19 5,918 5,918 5,874 5,896 5,902 5,894 -8 327,426 798,930
Mar-19 6,004 6,004 6,004 6,004 5,934 6,004 70 2 110
May-19 5,884 5,886 5,840 5,862 5,876 5,856 -20 58,504 171,128
Jul-19 5,830 5,842 5,830 5,842 5,822 5,836 14 4 40
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.