Ag Market Commentary
Brugler Marketing and Management, LLC - BRUG - Fri Aug 10, 11:56AM CDT

Corn futures are trading 5 to 8 cents in the red following the USDA reports this morning. The monthly Crop Production report from NASS showed the national average US corn yield at 178.4 bpa, 2.2 bpa above the average trade estimate. That put the production total for the US at 14.586 bbu, up 356 mbu from July. The jump in production caused the new crop ending stocks projection to be raised to 1.684 bbu. Old crop US stocks were UNCH at 2.027 bbu. Brazil production was cut by 0.5 to 83 MMT, with exports down 3 to 23 MMT. That helped old crop world stocks to jump to 193.33 MMT. New crop world carryout was up 3.53 MMT from USDA’s previous number to 155.49 MMT, thanks in part to the US production hike. China also sold 17.79% of the corn offered at an auction of state reserves on Friday, totaling 791,186 MT.

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.63, down 6 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.77, down 5 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.88, down 6 cents

May 19 Corn is at $3.94 3/4, down 6 cents

Soybean futures are posting sharp 32 to 35 cent losses in most contracts on Friday. The USDA numbers were not bull friendly. Nearby soy meal is down $7.6/ton, with soy oil 19 points lower. The USDA reported a private export sale of 210,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations, split between 17/18 (80,000 MT) and 18/19 (130,000 MT) delivery. That was ignored. NASS indicated a national average soybean yield at 51.6 bpa based on producer surveys in this morning’s Crop Production report. That exceeded expectations, with production seen at a record 4.586 bbu, 276 mbu higher than the July number. New crop US ending stocks were seen at a huge 785 mbu, up 205 mbu, with old crop carryout 35 mbu lower at 430 mbu. World old crop ending stocks were tightened to 95.61 MMT. New crop carryout was updated to 105.94 MMT for the world number, a bearish 7.67 MMT increase assisted by the US crop number.

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $8.55 1/2, down 32 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.58, down 35 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.68 3/4, down 35 1/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $8.80 3/4, down 34 3/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybean Meal is at $326.40, down $7.60

Aug 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.23, down $0.19

Wheat futures are showing 6 to 11 3/4 cent losses in the nearby contracts at midday. This morning’s NASS Crop Production report tallied all wheat production for 2018 at 1.877 bbu, just 4 mbu smaller than the previous report. HRW was seen at 661.22 mbu, with SRW at 291.8 mbu. Production of the spring wheat crop was just slightly higher to 614.155 mbu, as yield was UNCH from July at 47.6 bpa. They disagree with the Wheat Tour. US ending stocks of 18/19 wheat were shown at 935 mbu on a 50 mbu addition to the export projection. Production of the Russian wheat crop was up 1 to 68 MMT, with private estimates from SovEcon at 68.4 MMT and IKAR at 70.1 MMT. The New Crop world ending stocks projection was cut by 1.92 to 258.96 MMT. EU production was cut 7.5 MMT (275 million bushels!). A Ukraine wheat export limit was set at 16 MMT (8 MMT in milling wheat) for the18/19 MY by the country’s ag ministry on Friday, with 17/18 exports totaling 17.2 MMT.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.57 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat is at $5.70 1/2, down 8 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.18, down 11 3/4 cents

Live cattle futures are steady to 50 cents in the red at the moment. Feeder cattle futures are mixed, with nearby Aug up 45 cents and back months lower. The CME feeder cattle index was down 11 cents from the previous day on 8/8, reaching $150.45. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Friday morning. Choice boxes were up 24 cents at $206.30, while Select boxes were 28 cents higher at $198.37. Weekly FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 472,000 head through Thursday. That is up 5,000 head from the previous week and 9,000 head above the same week in 2017. A few cash cattle sales of $110-111.50 live and $178-179 were reported in the North on Thursday. USDA’s projection for 2018 beef production was trimmed by 56 million pounds to 27.094 billion, with 2019 increased 30 million from July to 27.720 billion pounds.

Aug 18 Cattle are at $107.975, down $0.275,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $109.025, down $0.025,

Dec 18 Cattle are at $112.900, down $0.075,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.800, up $0.450

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.975, down $0.050

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.925, down $0.275

Lean hog futures are currently 15 to 30 cents lower in the front months at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.29 on August 8, to $61.88. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 38 cents from the previous day at $71.07 on Friday morning. The ham and belly primal cuts were both reported higher. The national base hog carcass value was down $1.05 in the Friday AM report, with the weighted average @ $44.88. USDA estimated Week to Date FI hog slaughter at 1.772 million head through Thursday. That is down 21,000 head from last week due to plant downtime but 47,000 head above the same week last year. The USDA supply and demand table for pork shows estimated pork production in 2018 at 26.71 billion pounds, down 35 million. The 2019 number was increased 175 million to 27.875 billion pounds.

Aug 18 Hogs are at $54.825, down $0.150,

Oct 18 Hogs are at $51.100, down $0.300

Dec 18 Hogs are at $47.075, down $0.250

Cotton futures are showing 109 to 125 points losses in the nearby contracts on Friday. This morning’s Crop Production report showed a national average all cotton yield of 911 lb/ac, with upland at 895. That was up 66 pounds from the July report, as production rose 740,000 bales to 19.24 million bales. The US ending stocks number was up 600,000 bales to 4.6 million with old crop exports trimmed 350,000 bales to 15.85 million bales. World ending stocks were cut by a slight 0.74 to 77.1 million bales. The Cotlook A index was down 65 points from the previous day at 97.20 cents/lb on August 9. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 79.68 cents/lb today, down 39 points from the previous week.

Oct 18 Cotton is at 86.11, down 115 points,

Dec 18 Cotton is at 86.17, down 109 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 86.57, down 112 points

May 19 Cotton is at 86.880, down 125 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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