Ag Market Commentary
Brugler Marketing and Management, LLC - BRUG - Thu Aug 09, 12:12PM CDT

Corn futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents lower at midday, on position squaring ahead of Friday’s USDA reports. The weekly FAS Export Sales report showed 554,492 MT in old crop corn sales, which was on the high side of expectations. That was a jump of 89.88% from last week and was well above last year. New crop sales were shown at 657,670 MT, with total 18/19 outstanding sales 54.22% larger than the same week in 2017. Trade estimates compiled from Reuters and Bloomberg surveys are expecting the 2017/18 world ending stocks number will be trimmed by 1.23 MMT to 190.5 MMT on Friday. New crop is seen just 0.36 lower at a tight 151.6 MMT. CONAB trimmed their 17/18 Brazil corn production number by 0.75 to 82.18 MMT. China sold 1.176 MMT of corn from state reserves in an auction on Thursday, totaling 29.51% of the amount offered. A couple tenders saw purchases of optional origin corn (with US listed as an accepted origin) by South Korean (68,000 MT) and Taiwan (65,000 MT) importers on Thursday.

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.69, down 2 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.82 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.93 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents

May 19 Corn is at $3.99 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents

Soybean futures are down 4 to 5 3/4 cents in the front months on Thursday, with traders getting ready for Friday. Nearby soy meal is down $1.90/ton, with soy oil up 1 point. A private export sale of 135,000 MT of 18/19 soymeal to the Philippines was reported through the USDA’s daily reporting system this morning. Old crop soybean sales were shown at 421,841 MT in the week that ended on August 2, exceeding expectations. That was well above last week’s total, as net reductions to unknown (-543,500 MT) were more than offset by sales. New crop sales were slightly lower than the week prior at 532,540 MT. Soy meal sales totaled 129,512 MT, with soy oil at 10,903 MT. The average trade estimate for Friday’s WASDE report has old crop world ending stocks at 95.9 MMT, while new crop carryout is seen at 99.5 MMT. CONAB’s monthly crop report bumped their Brazilian soybean production estimate up 0.13 to 118.99 MMT, matching USDA’s July number.

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $8.88, down 5 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.95 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $9.06 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $9.17 3/4, down 4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybean Meal is at $335.20, down $1.90

Aug 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.46, up $0.01

Wheat futures are showing losses of 4 to 6 cents at midday. Profit taking before tomorrow’s reports and a higher dollar are holding the market down. The USDA Export Sales report indicated that all wheat export sales in the week of August 2 totaled 317,066 MT, in the middle of trade estimates. That was down 17.1% from a week ago and 31.7% lower than the same time in 2017. There was 156,500 MT reported in net reduction for unknown, which were likely switched to a destination. US Wheat ending stocks are expected to be down 18 mbu in Friday’s USDA report to 967 mbu according to pre-report surveys. Private forecaster Strategie Grains cut their EU wheat production estimate by 4.7 MMT to 127.7 MMT.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.64 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat is at $5.78 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.28 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents

Live cattle futures are trading $1.40 to $1.80 lower on Thursday. Feeder cattle futures are mostly $1.30 to $1.85 in the red at the moment. The CME feeder cattle index was up 50 cents from the previous day on 8/7, reaching $150.56. Wholesale boxed beef values were slightly lower on Thursday morning. Choice boxes were down 3 cents at $205.70, while Select boxes were 50 cents higher at $198.36. Weekly FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 357,000 head through Wednesday. That is up 5,000 head from the previous week and 6,000 head above the same week in 2017. Export sales of beef in the week of 8/2 were tallied at 14,560 MT, a slight drop from the previous week. Very few cash cattle bids have been reported this morning, with some $176 dressed bids shown in the North.

Aug 18 Cattle are at $108.425, down $1.400,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $109.200, down $1.800,

Dec 18 Cattle are at $113.050, down $1.475,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.800, down $1.850

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.375, down $1.375

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.400, down $1.575

Lean hog futures are posting limit gains in October and December contracts, with nearby August up 32.5 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.47 on August 7, to $63.17. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $2.14 from the previous day at $73.11 on Thursday morning. The picnic and rib were the only primal cuts reported lower, with the belly up $8.37. The national base hog carcass value was down $1.84 on Thursday morning, with the weighted average totaling $45.85. USDA estimated Week to Date FI hog slaughter at 1.31 million head through Wednesday. That is down 33,000 head from last week due to plant downtime but 30,000 head above the same week last year. Pork export sales during the week that ended on August 2 were 24,871 MT, down 30.5% from last week but 31.5% larger than last year.

Aug 18 Hogs are at $55.125, up $0.325,

Oct 18 Hogs are at $51.400, up $3.000

Dec 18 Hogs are at $47.375, up $3.000

Cotton futures are trading 2 to 20 points higher in most contracts, with nearby and thinly traded October down 8 points. The weekly USDA Export Sales report showed 17,526 RB of upland cotton export sales in the last week of the 17/18 MY, with 176,600 RB in 18/19 sales. There was a total of 1.528 million RB carried over from 17/18 to 18/19. Sales for the 19/20 MY (a year from now) were shown at 39,478 RB, with 1.328 million RB in sales already accumulated for that year! The Cotlook A index was down 40 points from the previous day at 97.85 cents/lb on August 8. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 79.68 cents/lb today, down 39 points from the previous week..

Oct 18 Cotton is at 87.31, down 8 points,

Dec 18 Cotton is at 87.2, up 2 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 87.6, up 13 points

May 19 Cotton is at 87.990, up 18 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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