Morning Call: A dovish BOJ boosts global stocks despite weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data and Eurozone Q2 GDP; Sep E-mini S&Ps up +0.28%; USD/JPY up +0.44% at a 1-week high.
Barchart.com - Tue Jul 31, 6:37AM CDT
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Overnight Markets and News

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU18 +0.26%) this morning are up +0.28% and European stocks are up +0.40% after the BOJ was more dovish than expected and as technology stocks stabilized after their three-day rout. Global bonds and stocks moved higher after the BOJ cut its inflation forecast and said that interest rates will stay low for an "extended period of time." Technology stocks were higher ahead of Apple's quarterly earnings results later today. Gains in European stocks were limited after Eurozone Q2 GDP expanded at a slower-than-expected pace. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +0.04%, Hong Kong -0.52%, China +0.26%, Taiwan +0.22%, Australia +0.03%, Singapore +0.38%, South Korea +0.05%, India +0.30%. Asian stocks rallied after the dovish action by the BOJ to cut its inflation forecast, which eased concern the BOJ would soon end its QE program. Gains in Chinese stocks were limited after China Jul manufacturing and Jul non-manufacturing data came in weaker than expected. A rally in USD/JPY to a 1-week high gave Japanese exporters a boost and lifted the overall Nikkei Stock Index.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.11%) is down -0.06%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.30%) is up +0.27% after Eurozone Jul CPI rose more than expected at the fastest pace in 5-1/2 year, which is hawkish for ECB policy. USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.36%) is up +0.44% at a 1-week high after he BOJ cut its inflation forecast and said interest rates will stay low for an "extended period of time.".

Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU18 +0-020) are up +5 ticks.

Eurozone Jul CPI rose +2.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.0% y/y and the fastest pace of increase in 5-1/2 years. The Jul core CPI rose +1.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.0% y/y.

Eurozone Q2 GDP rose +0.3% q/q and +2.1% y/y, a slower pace than expectations of +0.4% q/q and +2.2% y/y.

The Eurozone Jun unemployment rate was unch at 8.3%, right on expectations and a 9-1/2 year low.

German Jun retail sales rose +1.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.0% m/m.

German Jul unemployment fell -6,000 to 2.338 million, less than expectations of -10,00. The Jul unemployment rate was unch at a record low of 5.2%.

The China Jul manufacturing PMI fell -0.3 to 51.2, weaker than expectations of -0.2 to 51.3 and the slowest pace of expansion in 5-months. The Jul non-manufacturing PMI fell -1.0 to 54.0, weaker than expectations of -0.1 to 54.9 and the slowest pace of expansion in 11-months.

Japan Jun industrial production fell -2.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m and the biggest decline in 5 months.

Japan Jul consumer confidence unexpectedly fell -0.2 to an 11-month low of 43.5, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 43.8.

The Japan Jun jobless rate rose +0.2 to 2.4%, more than expectations of +0.1 to 2.3%. The Jun job-to-applicant ratio rose +0.02 to 1.62, higher than expectations of no change at 1.60 and the highest in 43-1/2 years.

The BOJ kept its benchmark interest rate at -0.1% and its 10-year yield target at zero percent but said it will allow the 10-year yield to fluctuate as much as 0.2% from zero, compared with 0.1% now. The BOJ also cut its 2018 inflation forecast in the fiscal year through March to 1.1% from a previous forecast of 1.3%.

U.S. Stock Preview

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Q2 employment cost index (expected +0.7%, Q1 +0.8%), (2) Jun personal spending (expected +0.4%, May +0.2%) and Jun personal income (expected +0.4%, May +0.4%), (3) Jun PCE deflator (expected +0.1% m/m and +2.3% y/y, May +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y) and Jun core PCE deflator (expected +0.1% m/m and +2.0% y/y, May +0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y), (4) May S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index (expected +0.2% m/m and +6.3% y/y, Apr +0.2% m/m and +6.56% y/y), (5) Jul Chicago PMI (expected -2.3 to 61.8, Jun +1.4 to 64.1), (6) Conference Board Jul U.S. consumer confidence (expected -0.4 to 126.0, Jun -2.4 to 126.4), (7) FOMC begins 2-day meeting.

Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Apple (consensus $2.16), Cummins (3.63), Ralph Lauren (1.36), Proctor & Gamble (0.90), ADM (0.77), Pfizer (0.74), Johnson Controls (0.79), American Tower (1.73), Verisk Analytics (1.00), Newfield Exploration (0.93), Devon Energy (0.36), Anadarko Petroleum (0.59).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: none.


Market Comments

Sep S&P 500 E-minis (ESU18 +0.26%) this morning are up +7.75 points (+0.28%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.58%, Dow Jones -0.57%, Nasdaq 100 -1.42%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower on a continued slide in technology stocks as the Nasdaq Composite tumbled to a 3-week low. There was also concern about higher global interest rates after the 10-year T-note yield, the German 10-year bund yield, and the UK 10-year bond yield all rose to 1-1/2 month highs. Stocks wre supported by the U.S. Jun pending home sales report of +0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m. Energy stocks found support on the +2.10% rally in crude oil prices to a 2-week high.

Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU18 +0-020) this morning are up +5 ticks. Monday's closes: TYU8 -2.00, FVU8 -0.25. Sep 10-year T-notes on Monday fell to a 1-1/2 month low and closed lower on negative carry-over from a rise in global bond yields after the German 10-year bund yield and the UK 10-year bond yield both climbed to 1-1/2 month highs. T-note prices were also undercut by the stronger-than-expected U.S. Jun pending home sales report of +0.9%. T-note prices found some supoprt on increased safe-haven support with the continued sharp decline in tech stocks.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.11%) this morning is down -0.072 (-0.08%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.30%) is up +0.0032 (+0.27%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.36%) is up +0.49 (+0.44%) at a 1-week high. Monday's closes: Dollar Index -0.351 (-0.37%), EUR/USD +0.0049 (+0.42%), USD/JPY -0.01 (-0.01%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower on weakness in USD/JPY on speculation the BOJ will announce at the conclusion of Tuesday's policy meeting that it will let Japan 10-year bond yields rise and may curtail the pace of its asset purchases. There was also strength in the currencies of crude exporters Canada and Russia versus the dollar after crude oil prices climbed to a 2-week high.

Metals this morning are lower with Aug gold (GCQ18 -0.24%) -4.2 (-0.34%), Sep silver (SIU18 -0.21%) -0.092 (-0.59%) and Sep copper (HGU18 +0.07%) -0.003 (-0.09%). Monday's closes: Aug gold -1.7 (-0.14%), Sep silver +0.044 (+0.28%), Sep copper -0.0100 (-0.36%). Metals on Monday settled mixed. Metals prices were boosted by a weaker dollar and by the increased prospects for a strike at the BHP Billiton's Escondida copper mine in Chile, the world's biggest, after workers there rejected the company's latest contract offer. Copper prices were undercut by the +1,750 MT increase in LME copper inventories to a 1-week high of 256,275 MT.

Sep WTI crude oil (CLU18 -0.46%) this morning is down -43 cents (-0.61%). Sep gasoline (RBU18 -0.22%) is -0.81 (-0.38%). Monday's closes: Sep crude +1.44 (+2.10%), Sep gasoline +0.04 (+0.02%). Sep crude oil and gasoline on Monday settled mixed with Sep crude at a 2-week high. Crude oil prices were boosted by a weaker dollar and by global oil supply concerns as Saudi Arabia continues to suspend crude shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea after two oil tankers were attacked by Yemen's Houthi militia last Thursday. Crude oil prices were undercut by the slide in stocks, which reduces optimism in the economic outlook and energy demand.

Overnight U.S. Stock Movers

Illumina (ILMN -3.95%) rose nearly 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.43, well above consensus of $1.11 and then forecast full-year adjusted EPS of $5.35 to $5.45, higher than consensus of $4.87.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG -1.45%) fell almost 4% in after-hours trading after Business Insider reported that CMG closed a restaurant location in Powell, Ohio on Monday following reports of customers getting sick after eating there.

Intel (INTC +0.02%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at DZ Bank AG with a price target of $55.

Texas Roadhouse (TXRH -2.61%) slumped 12% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 62 cents, below consensus of 67 cents.

Varonis Systems (VRNS -5.21%) tumbled 13% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q2 adjusted loss per share of -8 cents, wider than consensus of -5 cents, and then forecast Q3 adjusted loss per share of -2 cents to up +1 cent, the midpoint below consensus of +0.9 cents.

Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN -0.45%) climbed almost 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 net sales of $711 million, better than consensus of $655.3 million, and then raised its full-year sales increase estimate to up 15% to 18%, higher than an April estimate of up 10% to 14%.

Medpace Holdings (MEDP -1.36%) rallied 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 67 cents, well above consensus of 42 cents, and then forecast full-year adjusted EPS of $2.51 to $2.62, higher than consensus of $1.93.

Tribune Media (TRCO +1.57%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Evercore ISI with a price target of $40.

Electronics for Imaging (EFII +1.28%) fell 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 50 cents, weaker than consensus of 53 cents.

Acadia Healthcare (ACHC -2.42%) slid 7% in after-hours trading after it forecast full-year adjusted EPS of $2.52 to $2.56, below consensus of $2.59.

Rambus (RMBS -2.02%) fell more than 4% in after-hours trading after it forecast Q3 revenue of $45 million to $51 million, well below consensus of $99.6 million.

MagnaChip Semiconductor (MX +0.45%) jumped +15% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 revenue of $199.7 million, better than consensus of $185 million, and then forecast Q3 revenue of $200 million to $210 million, above consensus of $197.5 million.

SunPower (SPWR -1.60%) rose 4% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q2 adjusted loss per share of -1 cent, narrower than consensus of -29 cents.

AK Steel Holding (AKS +2.10%) dropped 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted Ebitda of $148.4 million, below consensus of $161.1 million.