Morning Call: Global stocks mostly lower ahead of several central bank meetings this week; Sep E-mini S&Ps down -0.03%; German 10-year bund yield climbs to a 1-1/2 month high of 0.445%.
Barchart.com - Mon Jul 30, 6:50AM CDT
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Overnight Markets and News

Sep E-mini S&Ps this morning (ESU18 -0.07%) are down -0.03% and European stocks are down -0.29% as global equity markets move lower ahead of several key central bank meetings this week. The markets will look to the BOJ policy meeting tomorrow to see if the BOJ mentions letting its 10-year T-bond yield rise above zero percent. Also, the FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday and the markets will look to see if the Fed remains hawkish expects to raise interest rates twice more this year. Finally, the BOE is expected to raise its benchmark rate by 25 bp on Thursday, despite Brexit concerns. Expectations of tighter global central bank policies has led to a sell-off in world bond markets and higher bond yields as the 10-year UK bond yield rose to a 1-1/4 month high of 1.334% and the 10-year German bund yield climbed to a 1-1/2 month high of 0.445%. Strength in energy stocks limited losses in the overall market as Sep WTI crude oil (CLU18 +2.05%) climbs +1.75% on supply concerns after the U.S. reimposes sanctions on Iran and after Saudi Arabia temporarily halted crude shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea when two oil tankers were attacked by Yemen's Houthi militia last Thursday. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -0.74%, Hong Kong -0.25%, China -0.16%, Taiwan -0.38%, Australia -0.35%, Singapore -0.54%, South Korea -0.16%, India +0.42%. China's yuan fell to a 13-month low of 6.8428 per dollar, while trade tensions remain between the U.S. and China after China's foreign minister, Wang Yi, said American policies were to blame for its trade deficit and the collapse of trade talks.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.19%) is down -0.19%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.26%) is up +0.24%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.05%) is up +0.01%.

Sep 10-year T-note prices (ZNU18 -0-040) are down -4 ticks.

Eurozone Jul economic confidence fell -0.2 to 112.1, stronger than expectations of -0.3 to 112.0. The Jul business climate indicator fell -0.09 to an 11-month low of 1.29, weaker than expectations of -0.04 to 1.35.

UK Jun net consumer credit rose +1.6 billion pounds, stronger than expectations of +1.4 billion pounds.

Japan Jun retail sales rose +1.5% m/m, right on expectations and the biggest increase in over 1-1/2 years.

U.S. Stock Preview

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jun pending home sales (expected +0.2% m/m, May -0.5% m/m and -2.8% y/y), (2) Jul Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (expected -5.5 to 31.0, Jun +9.7 to 36.5), (3) USDA weekly grain export inspections, (4) USDA weekly Crop Progress.

Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Caterpillar (consensus $2.73), Simon Property (2.90), Lowes (0.73), Seagate (1.45), Everest Re (0.98), Illumina (1.11), Vornado Realty Trust (1.06), AvalonBay Communities (2.20), SBA Communications (1.59), Unum (1.26).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: none.


Market Comments

Sep S&P 500 E-minis (ESU18 -0.07%) this morning are down -0.75 points (-0.03%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 -0.66%, Dow Jones -0.30%, Nasdaq 100 -1.40%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed lower on a continued slide in technology stocks. The Nasdaq 100 fell -1.40% after a -21% plunge in Twitter on disappointing revenue and user figures and on continued worries about Facebook which added a -0.8% loss on Friday to Thursday's plunge of -19.0%. Stocks found underlying support on strong U.S. economic data with the +4.1% increase in Q2 GDP, the +4.0% increase in Q2 personal spending (vs expectations of +3.0%), and the final-July U.S. consumer sentiment index of +0.8% versus expectations of unchanged.

Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU18 -0-040) this morning are down -4 ticks. Friday's closes: TYU8 +8, FVU8 +1.5. Sep 10-year T-notes on Friday closed higher on increased safe-haven demand with the sharp sell-off in U.S. tech stocks. T-notes were undercut by strong U.S. economic data with the strong Q2 GDP report of +4.1% and the +0.8 point increase in the final-July U.S. consumer sentiment index.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.19%) this morning is down -0.183 (-0.19%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.26%) is up +0.0028 (+0.24%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.05%) is up +0.01 (+0.01%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index -0.116 (-0.12%), EUR/USD +0.0014 (+0.12%), USD/JPY -0.18 (-0.16%). The dollar index on Friday closed lower on the decline in U.S. T-note yields, which undercut the dollar's interest rate differentials. In addition, USDJPY was undercut by support for the yen as the market to speculate that the BOJ is about to implement a hawkish policy tweak at its Mon/Tue meeting. The dollar found support on the strong U.S. Q2 GDP report of +4.1% and the +0.8 point increase in the final-July U.S. consumer sentiment index.

Metals this morning are mixed with AUg gold (GCQ18 -0.07%) down -1.9 (-0.16%), Sep silver (SIU18 +0.30%) up +0.027 (+0.17%) and Sep copper (HGU18 -0.75%) -0.024 (-0.84%). Friday's closes: Aug gold -2.7 (-0.72%), Sep silver -0.002 (-0.01%), Sep copper +0.0160 (-0.57%). Metals on Friday settled mixed. Metals prices were undercut by the sharp sell-off in U.S. tech stocks and ongoing trade tensions. Supportive factors for metals price included the slightly lower dollar and the strong U.S. economic data.

Sep WTI crude oil (CLU18 +2.05%) this morning is trading up +$1.20 a barrel (+1.75%). Sep gasoline (RBU18 +0.32%) is +0.61 (+0.29%). Friday's closes: Sep crude -0.92 (-1.32%), Sep gasoline -0.38 (-0.18%). Sep crude oil and gasoline on Friday closed lower on trade tensions and continued concern about slower global economic growth. In addition, Baker Hughes report that U.S. active oil rigs last week rose by 3 rigs to 861. A supportive factor was Friday's strong U.S. economic data.

Overnight U.S. Stock Movers

Colgate-Palmolive (CL -0.42%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Macquarie with a price target of $65.

Juniper (JNPR -7.33%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $32.

Crane (CR -0.18%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS with a price target of $100.

Ally Financial (ALLY -0.55%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch with a price target of $35.

Cooper Cos (COO -0.60%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Sector Weight' at KeyBanc Capital Markets with a price target of $298.

Helmerich & Payne (HP +1.74%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal-Weight' at Stephens with a price target of $85.

CBS (CBS -6.12%) CEO Leslie Moonves was accused of sexual harassment by several women according to any article in the New Yorker and the CBS Board will meet on the matter on Monday.

Alphabet (GOOG -2.35%) is reasonably valued, according to a weekend article by Barron’s

Facebook (FB -0.78%) is a bargain after last week's plunge, according to a weekend article in Barron’s

Fiat Chrysler (FCAU +0.96%) may provide a buying opportunity after weak 2Q results and the death of Sergio Marchionne, according to a weekend article by Barron’s

Papa John’s (PZZA -2.99%) appointed Olivia Kirtley as the new chair of the company’s board of directors

Sprint's (S +0.18%) chairman said the company is expanding into 700 Walmart stores with its partnership

Walmart (WMT -0.11%) is working on potential subscription video streaming service, according to a WSJ report